argument15 头一次贴，望大家狠命的拍
TOPIC: ARGUMENT15 - The following appeared in a newsletter offering advice to investors.
"Over 80 percent of the respondents to a recent survey indicated a desire to reduce their intake of foods containing fats and cholesterol, and today low-fat products abound in many food stores. Since many of the food products currently marketed by Old Dairy Industries are high in fat and cholesterol, the company's sales are likely to diminish greatly and their profits will no doubt decrease. We therefore advise Old Dairy stockholders to sell their shares and other investors not to purchase stock in this company."
WORDS: 430 TIME: 00:29:48 DATE: 15/06/2008 19:23:15
In this newsletter, the author claim that Old Dairy stockholders should sell their shares and other investors should not purchase the stock in this company. To support this argument , the author first cites that a large percent of the respondents tend to reduce their intake of foods containing fats and cholesterol. The author also points out that because of selling food that high in fats and cholesterol, the profits of Old dairy industries are likely to diminish. However, the argument at least flaws in the following 3 aspects which render it unconvincing as it stands.
A threshold problem is that whether the survey is statistically reliable. To be a reliable survey, the study's sample must be sufficient in size. The smaller the sample, the less reliable the survey is. The author tells us that 80percent of the respondents is an ambiguous data. The author doesn't provide the overall population of the market, so it is quite possible that the 80 percent of the respondents is just a small part of the overall population. Without ruling out this possibility, the author cannot convince me that it is a reliable survey.
Moreover, even if I concede that the survey is statistically reliable, but in fact, the author makes another problematic assumption that people are incline to the low-fat food rather than those high in fat and cholesterol because low-fat products abound in many food stores. Yet the author provide no evidence to substantiate this assumption. Lacking evidence, it is likely that stores are selling the high-fat food as well, and low-fat food actually in a very low sell condition. If the scenario is true, it will render the author's assumption.
Finally, the last problem involves argument that the author unfairly assumes that Old Dairy Industries' profits will decrease because many of their food products are high in fat and cholesterol. Yet this is not necessarily the case. It is entirely possible that Old Dairy Industries are also doing the business in low-fat products. Therefore they can also get a large number of profits and even most of their profits are coming from this field.
In sum, the argument that the profits of Old Dairy Industries will decrease is untenable. To strengthen the argument, the author should give more details of the survey even the total number of the people being investigate. Also, to access it better, the author should provide the evidence that the low-fat products are in a high selling condition in the food stores. And I also need to know the exact range of the Old Dairy industries.
