【求拍】ARGUMENT求拍，大家带砖头来......ARGUMENT 230
ARGUMENT求拍，大家带砖头来......ARGUMENT 230
TOPIC: ARGUMENT230 - The following appeared in a recommendation from the planning department of the city of Transopolis.
"Ten years ago, as part of a comprehensive urban renewal program, the city of Transopolis adapted for industrial use a large area of severely substandard housing near the freeway. Subsequently, several factories were constructed there, crime rates in the area declined, and property tax revenues for the entire city increased. To further revitalize the city, we should now take similar action in a declining residential area on the opposite side of the city. Since some houses and apartments in existing nearby neighborhoods are currently unoccupied, alternate housing for those displaced by this action will be readily available."
In this argument, the author asserts that the city authorities should execute an urban renewal program in the other side of the city of Transopolis. According to that program, a large area of housing that is up to below the standard should be used as industrial park. To support his or her conclusion, the author claims that crime rates declined in a developed area and the increasing property tax revenues for the entire Transopolis City. This argument is well-presented, but not thoroughly well-reasoned. There are many logical flaws in this recommendation, and I can show you some respects.
First of all, the declined crime rates and increasing property tax revenues are not necessarily due to the urban renewal program. It is entirely possible that the local authorities hired a lot more policemen, or law-breakers were punished more strictly in this area. Under this circumstance, I am not surprised that crime rates in this area declined in the past. Moreover, the increasing property tax revenues were counted in the entire city, not only the area that has been reconstructed. Even if the property tax revenues increased in this certain area, there is no evidence that it was the reconstruction that should be credited for the increase.
Furthermore, even assuming that this urban renewal program worked ten years ago, the recommendation rests on two additional assumptions: (1) that this positive effects will continue in the opposite side of the city in the foreseeable future, and (2) that nearby residents who have empty housed are willing to rent their houses. Until the author substantiates both assumptions I remain unconvincing that a similar action in another area will still work.
In addition, there are many side effects of industrial reconstruction that are not mentioned by the author. For instance, many factories will contaminate the environment in the area, the living condition for local inhabitants will decline. Lacking such information and statistics of this declining residential area, we cannot conclude that industrialization is the only way to further revitalize the city. If we execute this renewal program in this area without further thinking, it may not reach the effect that we hope now.
In conclusion, the argument is logically flawed and therefore unconvincing as it stands. To strengthen it the author must provide either further information and statistics of this area that is to be developed, or evidence that this renewal program will work in this area to revitalize the entire city. With those respects above, this argument will be a perfect and convincing one.
[ 本帖最后由 Alexanderhe 于 2008-7-14 22:44 编辑 ]
