中国唯一A股上市留学机构
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信不信由你:股市每逢鸡年必涨

来源:互联网   2017-02-17 10:33:23   
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  股市在某些中国生肖年行情比其他年份更好,这是事实。鸡年就是股市鸿运年之一。碰巧的是,在过往的鸡年中,亚洲和美国的股市行情都不错。

  下面这张图表显示出迄今为止鸡年是亚洲市场表现最好的年份。

  过往鸡年的平均回报率为52%,比回报率仅次于鸡年的兔年高19%,而且远远高出13%的平均年度回报率。(所有的回报率都按全部回报计算,包括红利所得。)

  如下图所示,根据标准普尔500指数,美国股市在鸡年的行情也不错。标准普尔500指数显示,美国股市在鸡年的平均回报率是14%,强劲表现仅次于虎年和猪年,和兔年的表现持平。

  如上图所示,应避免在蛇年涉足亚洲和美国股市,亚洲市场在蛇年平均来说表现平平,标准普尔500指数显示美国股市在蛇年的平均回报率只有1%。下一个蛇年是2025年,所以暂时没必要担心。

  用中国生肖预测股市并没有什么科学根据。同样,“一月晴雨表”和“五月抛股离场”的交易规则也没什么根据,但它们似乎行得通。当然过去如何也不意味着现在就会如何,但多多少少能为投资客提供一些指示。

  【参考译文】

  It’s a fact that some years of the Chinese zodiac are better than others for stock markets. And the Year of the Rooster is one of them. And as it happens, the rooster has in the past meant good things, for both Asian and US stock markets.

  The graph below shows that the year of the rooster has been the best year for Asian markets, by far.

  Past years of the rooster have averaged returns of 52 percent. That’s 19 percentage points higher than the next closest year, the year of the rabbit. And it’s well above the average return of 13 percent a year. (All returns are total returns, and include dividends.)

  As shown below, US markets, as measured by the S&P 500, also do very well during the Chinese year of the rooster. The S&P 500 has averaged a total return of 14 percent. That strong performance is behind only the year of the tiger, and the year of the pig, and is tied with the year of the rabbit.

  As shown above, both Asian and US markets should be avoided during the year of the snake – Asian markets have on average been flat, and the S&P 500 has only returned 1 percent on average. The next year of the snake will be 2025, so there’s no need to worry about it for a while.

  There’s no scientific basis for the predictive powers of the Chinese zodiac. Just like there’s no basis for the January barometer, or the “sell in May and go away” trading rule (but they seem to work). And of course the past has no bearing on the present, but it can give investors some guidance.

[编辑:lianghong]
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