逊尼派阿拉伯人对伊拉克政治进程的影响

You are listening to the BBC World Service, now Analysis.
您正在收听的是BBC世界报道，现在是新闻分析。

Ever since the fall of Saddam Hussein over two years ago, the Sunni Arabs of Iraq have been identified as the main stumbling block for creating a new political order in the country. Most insurgents are Sunni Arabs, and they operate mainly in predominantly Sunni areas in Western Iraq. Sunni politicians have also been opposed to the political transition, saying that it could never be legitimate as long as foreign troops continued to patrol their cities. But many of them have now dropped their opposition and they are calling on Sunni Arabs to vote in Thursday's parliamentary election. Our Arab Affairs Analyst, Magdi Abdelhadi, examines the grievances and expectations of a community that has dominated the political life of Iraq for decades and now fears being marginalised.
自从萨达姆•候赛因于两年多前下台以来，伊拉克的逊尼派阿拉伯人被认为是在这个国家创建一个新的政治秩序的主要绊脚石。多数叛乱分子就是逊尼派阿拉伯人，他们主要在伊拉克西部有影响的逊尼派地区活动。逊尼派的政客们反对此次的政治过渡，并告诫说只要外国的军队仍继续巡游于他们的城市中，过渡就永远不会是合法的。但是，他们中的许多人现在已经不再反对并且正呼吁逊尼派阿拉伯人为即将于星期四举行的议会选举投票。迈戈迪•阿布戴尔哈迪（Magdi Abdelhadi）是我们的阿拉伯事务分析员，他对一个控制了伊拉克政治生活几十年的政治团体所表现出的不满和期望进行了研究，发现他们现在担心受到排斥。

REP: Protests in the town of Falluja shortly after the fall of Saddam Hussein. American soldiers had opened fire on a small demonstration, killing several Iraqis. The Americans say they acted in self-defence. The Iraqis say the shooting was unprovoked. It was an ominous incident which foreshadowed worse things to come. Yahia Said, an Iraqi researcher at the London School of Economics, explains what went wrong.
记者：在萨达姆•候赛因下台后不久示威就在费卢杰发生了。美国士兵向一群小规模示威者开了枪，打死了几名伊拉克人。这些美国士兵说，他们开枪是出于自卫，而这些伊拉克人却说射击无缘无故地就发生了。这是一场不吉利的事件，它预示着还要有更糟糕的事情发生。伦敦经济学院的一名伊拉克籍研究员亚海阿•赛德（Yahia Said）阐述了这些后来发生的糟糕之事。

YAHIA SAID: Initially, in the aftermath of the invasion, there was a tacit deal between tribal leaders in the Sunni areas and the invading forces, that the US coalition forces in particular would stay out of cities. And US forces felt that this was not something they could live with in the long term. And they have tried to enter the cities, particularly Falluja. And this is when it all started to unravel. But until then, Sunni areas remained as quiet as the rest of the country.
亚海阿•赛德：最初，在联军入侵伊拉克的后期，逊尼派地区的部落领导人和入侵的联军之间有一个心照不宣的协议，即美国联军应驻扎在城市的外部地区。然而，美国军方感到这不是他们能够长期接受的事情，所以他们就试图进入这些城市，尤其是费卢杰城，从此他们开始分裂。但是，直到那时逊尼派地区与伊拉克其它地区一样仍保持着平静。

REP: That quiet was rapidly shattered as attacks on American troops spread from one Sunni area to another.This created the impression of a close identification between the insurgency and the Sunni Arab community as a whole. A standard explanation for this perception was that Sunni Arabs were fighting back because, although they are a minority, they have ruled Iraq ever since it was carved out of the Ottoman empire in the early 1920's, and that they could see that power ebbing away. According to this theory, the Sunni Arabs were terrified of losing their privileged status as a ruling minority. Charles Tripp of the School of Oriental and African Studies in London, explains why that is an over-simplification.
记者：这种平静随着对分布在一个又一个逊尼派地区的美国部队所进行的袭击而迅速地被打破。袭击也给人们带来这样一个印象，即叛乱分子和逊尼派阿拉伯人群体是紧密地联系在一起的。对这种理解的权威解释是：逊尼派阿拉伯人在反击。因为尽管他们是少数派，但是自从他们于20世纪20年代开拓出奥托曼帝国以来，他们一直统治着伊拉克，然而，现在看到的却是他们的统治正在衰退。根据这一推测，逊尼派阿拉伯人是在担心会失去他们作为占统治地位的少数人的特权地位。但据伦敦大学东方及非洲研究学院的查尔斯•特利普（Charles Tripp）说，这一推测过于简单，并就其理由阐释说：

CHARLES TRIPP: I think one of the reasons why people have latched on to the notion of the Sunni Arabs being the ruling minority of Iraq is that, when the British took over the provinces of the Ottoman Empire that became Iraq, the Ottoman Empire was a largely Sunni Muslim empire, in terms of its power structures, in terms of its officials. When the British took over, they recruited the officer corps of the old Ottoman army into the new Iraqi army. They recruited the judges of the old Ottoman state into the new state, and also the bureaucrats and the ministries -- the people who would know how to run a modern state. So it's rather deceptive calling them the Sunnis; because, although they were Sunni, they actually thought of themselves as secular modernists.
查尔斯•特利普：我认为，人们得出这个占统治地位的少数人群体就是逊尼派阿拉伯人这一观点的原因之一是：当初，当英国人接管奥托曼帝国——后来成为伊拉克——的一些省份时，无论从其权力结构角度还是从其行政人员方面都可以看出，奥托曼帝国很大程度上是一个逊尼穆斯林帝国。当英国人接管时，他们吸收了原奥托曼帝国的军官编入新伊拉克部队；他们吸收了原帝国的法官们进入这个新国家体系；他们还接纳了行政官员和政府部门——这些人知道怎样去运行一个现代的国家。因此，称他们为逊尼派教徒是不切实际的，因为尽管他们是逊尼派教徒，但事实上他们自己认为是非宗教的现代主义者。

REP: That secular and modern tradition inspired the Arab nationalist ideology of the Ba'ath party, which ruled Iraq from the 1960s until Saddam Hussein was overthrown in 2003. This was a doctrine that alienated the Kurds -- who are Sunni Muslims but not Arabs -- as well as the powerful religious establishment of the majority Shia Muslims. So, the Sunni Arabs of Iraq appeared to be those who benefited most from the Ba'ath regime of Saddam Hussein. Charles Tripp says that is yet another inaccurate description.
记者：这个非宗教的、现代的传统激励了巴阿斯党（Ba'ath）的阿拉伯国家主义的意识形态，巴阿斯党是从20世纪60年代开始统治伊拉克直至萨达姆•候赛因于2003年被打倒下台。这个说法是一个疏远库尔德人和占多数人的什叶派穆斯林这一强有力的宗教团体的学说，库尔德人是逊尼穆斯林但不是阿拉伯人。因此，逊尼派阿拉伯人看上去是那些主要从萨达姆•候赛因的巴阿斯政权受益的人。但是，查里斯•特利普说这仍是一个不够准确的描述。

CHARLES TRIPP: The people who benefited from Saddam Hussein's rule were effectively the people Saddam Hussein trusted. And in some respects those were the people from his rural community in northern Iraq; to some extent, they were the people who had gone through the Ba'ath Party with him. Whether they were Christian, Shia or Sunni didn't make any difference to him at all. And so, I think when you look at the power structure of Iraq under Saddam Hussein, it's much more complex than simply the Sunnis ruling the rest. And I think that's one of the reasons why the present government of Iraq has a real problem in trying to reorganise Iraq along largely sectarian lines. But it's also one of the reasons why people who happen to be Sunni Arab feel themselves increasingly excluded from a state that uses very sectarian or very ethnic language.
查尔斯•特利普：那些因萨达姆•候赛因政权受益的人实际上是他所信任的人。在某些方面，他们是那些来自伊拉克北部萨达姆•候赛因家乡的人；在某种程度上，他们是那些与萨达姆带领巴阿斯党打拼过来的人。对他来说，无论这些人是基督徒还是什叶派的人或是逊尼派的人，都不重要。因此，我认为当你思考一下萨达姆•候赛因时代的伊拉克政权结构时，你会发现它远非是逊尼派领导其它各派那么简单。并且，我认为这也是目前伊拉克政府在尽力沿着主要宗派的体系重组伊拉克政权时出现真正问题的原因之一。但是，这也是那些恰好是逊尼派阿拉伯人感觉到他们自身越来越受到一个完全使用宗教派的或异教徒语言的这个国家排斥的一个原因。

REP: So, when it comes to getting the Sunni Arabs to engage with the post-Saddam Iraq, there is a problem. Yahia Said -- himself Iraqi-born -- says that the Sunni Arabs are far from being a homogenous group.
记者：因此，当涉及到将逊尼派阿拉伯人与萨达姆下台后的伊拉克政府进行结合时，问题便出现了。出生在伊拉克的亚海阿（Yahia）说，逊尼派阿拉伯人远非一个纯系的群体。

YAHIA SAID: It's very difficult to bring in "the Sunnis", because there are various Sunnis. There are ex-Ba'athists; there are Islamist nationalists, who hate the ex-Ba'athists; there are people who work with al-Qaeda, who may feel some affinity with the Ba'athists but definitely have problems with the nationalists. There are some Sunnis who are involved in the political process: Vice-President Ghazi al-Yawer, Minister of Defence Sa'adun al-Dulaimi. So there are various groups. And some of them will be very difficult to bring on board ever, like those who are involved with al-Qaeda, or some of the remnants of the regime who are intent on sabotaging the entire process.
亚海阿•赛德：欲把“逊尼派教徒”融入进来是很困难的，因为他们是由各类不同背景的逊尼派教徒组成的：有前巴阿斯党分子；有伊斯兰国家主义者，他们憎恨前巴阿斯党分子；有与“基地”组织合作的人，他们也许感觉到与前巴阿斯党分子有些亲和力，但他们明显与国家主义者有矛盾。虽然现在有一些逊尼派教徒已经参入了伊拉克的政治进程，如副总统哥哈兹•埃尔－亚维（Ghazi al-Yawe）、国防部长萨阿敦•埃尔－杜莱米（Sa'adun al-Dulaimi）。但是，在这许多不同的逊尼派群体中，一些人是很难被融入进来的，如那些与“基地”组织有联系的人，或者那些打算破坏整个政治进程的旧政权的残余分子。

REP: It goes without saying those bent upon derailing the political process through violence represent the most difficult challenge to efforts to establish a new political order in Iraq. Some of them still take their cue from Saddam Hussein, who's on trial, but unrepentant.
记者：这并不是说那些决意通过暴力阻止伊拉克政治进程的势力构成了对在伊拉克创建新政治秩序的最大障碍。（问题在于）他们中的一些人仍然在受着萨达姆•候赛因的暗示。萨达姆仍在受审，但他不表示后悔。

Here the former President interrupts the judge to question the legitimacy of the court. His lawyer backs him up by saying that the court is the product of an illegal American invasion, and as such it is an illegitimate body.
现在，这位前总统打断了对他的审判，因他对法庭的合法性提出了质疑。他的律师在为他辩护时说，该法庭是美国非法入侵的产物，因此它是非法的机构。

Views like these are typical of those who still identify with the ousted Ba'ath party. And by declaring the institutions of the new Iraqi state illegitimate, they also justify attacks on Iraqi police and the army.
这样的观点主要来自那些对下台的巴阿斯党持认同态度的人，他们宣称新的伊拉克国家机构是违法的，并以此主张他们对伊拉克警力和军队袭击的正确性。

SALAH AL-MUKHTAR: This is an essential part of the targets of the Iraqi armed resistance. These are puppets of the invasion forces. So the first target is to destroy this Iraqi shield, to uncover the American armed forces, as well as the British and others, to the attacks of the Iraqi armed resistance.
萨拉赫•埃尔－穆克赫塔尔：这是伊拉克武装抵抗目标中最重要的一部分，即入侵联军的傀儡政权。因此，首要的目标是摧毁这个傀儡政权对伊拉克武装抵抗袭击的防护，将美军以及英国或其它国家的军队暴露出来，成为伊拉克武装抵抗袭击的目标。

REP: Salah Al-Mukhtar is a Ba'athist writer and former Iraqi ambassador, who now lives in exile in Yemen.
记者：萨拉赫•埃尔－穆克赫塔尔（Salah al-Mukhtar）是巴阿斯党的一名作家，伊拉克的前大使，现在也门流亡。（他表示：）

SALAH AL-MUKHTAR: The ultimate goal is to liberate Iraq by armed struggle from the colonial invasion of Iraq. And the other objective is to hold an election, after two years of liberating Iraq, to determine which party will rule Iraq.
萨拉赫•埃尔－穆克赫塔尔：伊拉克武装抵抗的最终的目标是要通过武装斗争将受殖民侵略的伊拉克解放，另外一个目标是在伊拉克解放两年后举行一次选举，并决定伊拉克由哪一个党派来统治。

REP: But you wouldn't like to see Saddam Hussein back in power again, would you?
记者：但是，你不愿意看到萨达姆•候赛因再次上台，对吗？

SALAH AL-MUKHTAR: Saddam Hussein is the legitimate President of Iraq till this moment. But he personally preferred to have an election held after the liberation.
萨拉赫•埃尔－穆克赫塔尔：直到此时此刻，萨达姆•候赛因仍是伊拉克合法的总统，但是，他个人宁愿在伊拉克获得解放后举行一次选举。

REP: But the Ba'athists no longer have a monopoly over Iraqi politics. Today they have to compete with other nationalist and Islamist groups that claim to represent the Sunni Arabs. In the political vacuum that emerged after the collapse of the Ba'ath regime, religious organisations moved in. The Association of Muslim Scholars is one of them. It brings together hundreds of Sunni Muslim clerics from across Iraq. It is also known to have links with the insurgents. Dr. Issam Al-Rawi is one of the group's spokesmen.
记者：但是巴阿斯主义者已经不再垄断伊拉克的政治。今天，他们不得不与其它国家主义和那些宣称代表逊尼派阿拉伯人的伊斯兰教群体进行竞争。在巴阿斯政权倒台后的政治真空期间，宗教组织乘虚而入，穆斯林学者协会（The Association of Muslim Scholars）便是其中的一个。该协会将伊拉克国内的逊尼派穆斯林牧师聚集到了一起。还因与叛乱分子有联系而为人所知晓。伊萨姆•埃尔－拉维（Issam al-Rawi）博士是此协会的一名发言人。（他表示：）

ISSAM AL-RAWI(THROUGH INTERPRETER): We do not accept attacking any Iraqi, be he a Muslim or not, or if he is a member of the police force or the army. We have declared illegal any attacks on any Muslim and any attacks on any civilian, even if they're from the US or Britain. Legitimate resistance should target none other than the occupying soldiers.
伊萨姆•埃尔－拉维（通过翻译）：我们不同意对任何伊拉克人进行攻击，无论他是不是穆斯林，也无论他是不是警察或军人。我们已经声明，任何对穆斯林和平民的袭击都是违法的，即使他们是英国人或是美国人。合法的抵抗应该仅针对占领军。

REP: That is a view shared by other Sunni Arab organisations. Adnan Al-Duleimi is a spokesman for a new coalition of nationalist and Islamist Sunni Arab parties contesting the election on Thursday.
记者：其它逊尼派阿拉伯人组织也持同样的立场。将参加星期四竞选的国家主义党派和伊斯兰教逊尼派阿拉伯人党派已经组成一个新的政党联盟，安德南•埃尔－都雷米（Adnan al-Duleimi）是此政党联盟的一名发言人。（他表示：）

ADNAN AL-DULEIMI(THROUGH INTERPRETER): We want to reinstate the old Iraqi army and to abolish the de-Ba'athification law; release all prisoners; stop the bombing of cities, and the arbitrary raids against homes. We want to ban all party militias which were trained abroad. They should have no role whatever in maintaining security in Iraq.
安德南•埃尔－都雷米（通过翻译）：我们想吸收原来的伊拉克军队，废除巴阿斯法（de-Ba'athification），释放所有的囚犯，停止对城市的轰炸，停止对我们家园的肆意袭击。我们想取缔所有在国外训练的党派性民兵，他们不会被允许在维护伊拉克安全工作中承担任何角色。

REP: The existence of militias associated with Kurdish and Shia parties has long soured relations between Iraq's three main groups. The Sunni Arabs are also worried about the new constitution that they fear could lead to the break-up of Iraq into oil-rich regions in the Kurdish north and the Shia-dominated south, leaving the Sunni areas bereft of economic resources. Adnan Al-Duleimi again.
记者：与库尔德人和什叶派党有联系的民兵的存在始终破坏着伊拉克三个主要势力团体的关系。逊尼派阿拉伯人担心，这个他们所害怕的新的国家宪法可能会引领分裂的伊拉克进入库尔德人北部和什叶派控制的南部这些石油丰富的地区，从而导致逊尼派所在地区丧失经济资源。安德南•埃尔－都雷米（Adnan al-Duleimi）再次表示：

ADNAN AL-DULEIMI(THROUGH INTERPRETER): We don't believe in federalism, and will stand up against anyone who wants to break Iraq up. We don't want Iraq's natural wealth to be allocated to any province. It should be for all Iraqis, which is a principle accepted by all countries around the world.
安德南•埃尔－都雷米（通过翻译）：我们不会相信联邦制度，我们坚决反对任何人分裂伊拉克，我们不想让伊拉克的天然财富被分配到任何省份，它应该属于所有的伊拉克人，这是一个为世界各国所接受的一个原则。

REP: Charles Tripp, of the London School of Oriental and African Studies, says he understands why people who are neither Kurdish nor Shi'ite would be worried about the constitution.
记者：据伦敦大学东方及非洲研究学院的查尔斯•特利普（Charles Tripp）说，他理解为什么担心这个新宪法的人既不是库尔德人也不是什叶派教徒。

CHARLES TRIPP: I think, when you look at the Iraqi Constitution, there are grounds for real fear that it hasn't sorted out the fundamental problem of local power versus central authority. And the bias tends to be towards local power. It's understandable that the constitution should downplay central authority and boost the notion of local authorities. But for many Sunni Arabs, who are very attached to the notion of Iraq, there's a real fear that they've effectively laid the blueprint for the break-up of Iraq.
查尔斯•特利普：我认为，当你看一眼伊拉克的宪法时，你会明白他们担心的理由在于伊拉克宪法没有列出相对于中央权力的地方权力的最基本的问题，并且宪法还偏向于地方权力。当然，宪法忽视中央的权力而促进地方当局这一主张是可以理解的。但是，对于许多逊尼派阿拉伯人来说，他们与伊拉克国家的思想主张有着紧密的联系,有人担心他们实际上已经为伊拉克的分裂设计好了蓝图。

REP: What is new the stand? It’s that all the main Sunni Arab parties are taking part, unlike the January election, which they boycotted. The Association of Muslim Scholars, which spearheaded the boycott back in January, is now urging people to vote. I asked their spokesman, Dr. Issam al-Rawi, why they had changed their minds.
记者：新的情况是指在将于星期四举行的议会选举中，所有主要的逊尼派阿拉伯人党派都将参加选举，这与一月份的选举不同，那时，他们进行了联合抑制。当时，穆斯林学者协会充当了抵制活动的先锋，而现在他们却在敦促人们去投票。我问他们的发言人伊萨姆•埃尔－拉维博士为什么他们改变了他们的想法时，（他表示：）

ISSAM AL-RAWI(THROUGH INTERPRETER): We had our reservations about holding elections then, while the occupying soldiers and party militias were still controlling the country.
伊萨姆•埃尔－拉维（通过翻译）：当占领军和党派性民兵仍在控制着这个国家时，我们对举行选举是持保留态度的。

REP: It's a question that Dr. al-Rawi apparently finds difficult to answer. He doesn't want to acknowledge that the boycott might have been a mistake, because, as a result of it, the Sunni Arab representation in the current parliament does not reflect the size of the Sunni Arab population. Yahia Said of the London School of Economics again.
记者：显然，埃尔－拉维博士发现这是一个很难回答的问题，他不想承认那次的联合抵制也许本来就是个错误，因为结果是逊尼派阿拉伯人在目前议会中的代表并没有反映出逊尼派阿拉伯人的人口规模。伦敦经济学院的亚海阿（Yahia）又说：

YAHIA SAID: Clearly there was a missed opportunity in the previous elections, and there is an understanding of a missed opportunity in the previous elections, when Sunni groups did not participate. At the same time, of course, it's very difficult, because the Sunni community has never had to operate as a Sunni community. It's not organised like the other groups. Until now, there are no significant Sunni movements. And that will remain a problem for Sunni participation in the elections -- who to vote for. Probably many Sunnis will participate in the election and vote for, say, the Iraqi alliance.
亚海阿•赛德：很清楚，在上次选举中，他们错过了机会，当然这也是可以理解的，因为逊尼派没有参与。同时，当然那也是很困难的，因为逊尼派还从来没有进行过必须以整体的规模来行动，它没有像其它团体那样来组织自己。直至现在，他们也没有进行过影响重大的逊尼派运动。然而，即使逊尼派参加此次选举，他们仍有一个问题：他们投谁的票？也许许多逊尼派教徒会参加此次选举并且为伊拉克联盟投票。

REP: So, if the Sunni Arabs do vote and get lots of seats this time, will this see an end to their fear of marginalisation? Charles Tripp.
记者：如果逊尼派阿拉伯人确实参与选举了，并且此次得到了许多席位，那就意味着他们不再担心受到排斥了吗？查尔斯•特利普表示：

CHARLES TRIPP: To take part in the elections means that people from the Sunni Arab communities have to organise themselves. If they do take part in the elections, they will represent a section of the Sunni Arab community. They won't represent the whole of the Sunni Arab community. But it does mean that a political agenda is beginning to emerge. And if that happens, then one can argue: if a political agenda emerges, then political organisations emerge and then that leaves more room for them to be engaged in the political process, not simply in the fighting or terrorism that they've been involved with so far.
查尔斯•特利普：参加选举意味着那些来自逊尼派阿拉伯人群体的人已经对他们自己进行了有效的组织，然而，如果他们确实参加了选举，他们将会代表逊尼派阿拉伯人群体的一部分，而不是代表全部。但是，这也意味着一个政治的议事日程开始形成，并且，当其发生的时候，有人会主张：如果政治的议事日程形成了，政治组织出现了，那么他们就被赋予了更多的空间来参与这个政治进程，不仅仅包括他们至今仍在进行的打击恐怖主义行动。

REP: His is a somewhat positive assessment of the likely course of events in Iraq after the election. But much will depend on how Iraq's two other major groups, the Shias and the Kurds, will respond to the Sunni Arabs' fear of marginalisation and of a federal Iraq in which they are deprived of both political and financial muscle.
记者：从某种程度上说，这是对此次选举后可能的活动过程进行的一个积极评估。但是，更主要的还是要取决于伊拉克的其它两个主要派别——什叶派和库尔德人如何对逊尼派阿拉伯人的担心做出回应，即逊尼派阿拉伯人一则担心自己会受到排斥，二则担心在联邦制的伊拉克中他们的政治和金融权力被剥夺。