中国政府启动万亿地方债置换计划
来源: 互联网  时间: 2015年05月18日 

  China is imposing a $160bn municipal-bonds-for-debt swap on banks in a bid to shift some of the financing costs of cash-strapped local governments back to lenders, local media reported on Wednesday.

  Ballooning debts at municipalities — estimated at $2.9bn by mid-2013 as local governments engaged in a frenzy of debt-fuelled infrastructure building — have emerged as one of the fault lines in China’s economy as growth slows and property prices dip.

  Beijing is seeking to limit debt servicing costs for municipalities by obliging banks to switch out loans, which frequently carry interest rates over 7 per cent, in return for municipal bonds with a capped coupon.

  The swap will crimp banks’ income, but the central bank will cushion the blow by accepting municipal bonds as collateral for key lending facilities through which it provides liquidity to commercial lenders.

  The debt swap will also avoid public bond auctions that had threatened to drain Rmb1tn ($160bn) in liquidity from the financial system and expose lacklustre demand for municipal paper.

  Instead, the swap will occur through bilateral negotiations between localities and individual creditors, the central bank, finance ministry, and bank regulator said in jointly issued guidelines obtained by Sina Finance.

  The reduction in credit risk will mitigate the negative impact on banks’ bottom lines, analysts said.

  “Although banks’ earnings will be hurt by the lower yields of bonds (relative to higher interest on loans), we believe the market will value banks’ gain in risk reduction and liquidity over their loss in interest revenue,” wrote Tao Wang, chief China economist at UBS.

  China’s finance ministry in March revealed a plan for provincial governments to refinance Rmb1tn in debt due to mature this year by issuing municipal bonds. The goal is to lower debt-servicing costs and extend maturities by converting short-term loans to long-term bonds.

  But the plan hit a snag last month when two provincial governments were forced to postpone bond auctions in the face of weak demand from banks, who balked at the low yields.

  The latest rules say that the new local bonds must not carry yields of more than 30 per cent above prevailing yields on Chinese central government bonds with matching maturities. Chinese treasuries yield 3.2 to 3.5 per cent for maturities of one to 10 years.

  The yield cap will not apply to the Rmb600bn in new local bonds that will be auctioned this year outside the debt swap program.

  Beyond the issue of yields, market watchers were also concerned that Rmb1tn in new bonds, if sold in the open market, would suck liquidity out of China’s financial system, choking off the flow of funds to other borrowers.

  Under the latest guidelines local governments will negotiate directly with individual creditors to swap maturing loans for newly issued bonds. As such, no cash payments will change hands so liquidity will be unaffected.

  Private placements will be used to refinance bank loans as well as maturing debt from non-bank financial institutions like trust companies, securities brokerages and insurers, the guidance said.

        据中国国内媒体周三报道,中国正在让银行用1600亿美元的地方政府债券置换存量债务,以便将现金短缺的地方政府的部分融资成本转嫁回银行手中。

    随着增长放缓及楼市价格下跌,地方政府不断增大的债务已日益成为中国经济的断层线(fault line,取自《断层线》一书,借用地质学概念形容金融危机的源头——译者注)之一。截止2013年中,中国地方政府的债务估计为29万亿美元。当时,各地方政府开展了一轮靠债务驱动的疯狂的基础建设。

  中国政府正试图通过强制银行将贷款换成地方政府债券,限制地方政府的偿债成本。贷款的利率通常在7%以上,而地方债券的折扣却有上限。

  这种置换过程会影响银行的收入。不过,中国央行(PBoC)将通过接受地方债券作为抵押品,缓冲由此带来的冲击。这类抵押品可用在关键的贷款机制当中,央行会通过这类贷款机制,向商业银行提供流动性。

  这次债务置换也将避免公开拍卖债券。公开拍卖债券可能会耗去1万亿元人民币(合1600亿美元)的流动性,并暴露出地方债券需求疲软的问题。

  相反,根据新浪财经(Sina Finance)所获的中国央行、财政部和银监会共同下发的指导意见,置换过程会通过地方财政部门与特定债权人间的双边协商展开。

  分析师表示,信用风险的降低将缓解对银行盈利的负面影响。

  瑞士银行(UBS)首席中国问题经济学家汪涛写道:“在我们看来,虽然利息收益可能会有所降低,但银行将受益于风险资产规模下降、资本充足率提高、流动性提高,以及资产质量改善。”

  今年3月,中国财政部披露了一项计划,要求各省政府通过发行地方债券,为今年到期的1万亿元人民币债务再融资。该计划的目标,是通过将短期贷款转换成长期债券,降低偿债成本并延长还款期。

  然而上个月这一计划却遭遇了小小的挫折。当时,由于银行对过低收益率不满而导致的银行需求疲软,两个省政府被迫推迟债券拍卖。

  最新规定表示,新地方债收益率上限不得高于发行日前1至5个工作日相同待偿期记账式国债收益率平均值上浮的30%。目前,中国1到10年期的国债收益率在3.2%到3.5%之间。

  对于此次地方债务置换计划以外拍卖的6000亿人民币的新发行地方债券,这一收益率上限并不适用。

  除了收益率的问题,市场观察人士还关注这样一个问题:1万亿元人民币的新债券,一旦在公开市场出售,会吸收中国金融体系中的流动性,从而阻碍资金流向其他借款方。

  根据最新的指导意见,地方政府将直接与特定债权人协商,将到期贷款置换成新发行债券。这样,置换过程中不会涉及现金换手,从而让流动性不受影响。

  该指导意见还表示,这种定向承销方式除了可用于银行贷款的再融资,还可用于信托、证券、保险等非银行类金融机构的再融资。

编辑:tantan