欧洲领导人为何无法接近特朗普

2018-01-02 10:41:40 来源:互联网 更多资讯、资料、活动请点

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  Normally, personal relationships between electedleaders scarcely matter. Most leaders follow thebriefing books written by their bureaucracy. Theypursue long-established national policies. Any talkof personal “chemistry” is usually just gossip.

  民选领导人之间的私交通常都不太重要。多数领导人都照着手下官僚写的简要册子行事。他们奉行长期以来的国家政策。任何有关个人“化学作用”的说法通常只是私下流传的八卦。

  But it’s different with Donald Trump. After a careerrunning a small family company without a board, hedoesn’t do bureaucracy. He surrounds himself withtrusted lackeys. Anyone who manages to get a word in his ear therefore has a good chance ofshaping the world’s fate.

  但是唐纳德特朗普(Donald Trump)不一样。特朗普以前经营着一家没有董事会的小型家族公司,他不奉行官僚作风。他身边都是自己的亲信。因此,任何能在他跟前说上话的人都有机会影响这个世界的命运。

  So far, Trump hasn’t bothered much with foreign policy. Moving the US embassy to Jerusalemand leaving the Paris climate accords were chiefly symbolic acts. But that could soon change.His tax bill may prove his last big domestic legislation, especially given his shrunken Senatemajority. That will free up more head space to get worked up about foreign issues, from NorthKorea to Iran. Other western countries therefore face an urgent question — how to influencethis man

  目前为止,特朗普还没太管外交政策的事。把美国驻以色列大使馆搬到耶路撒冷以及退出巴黎气候协定主要是象征性的举动。但是这种情况可能很快就会改变。他的税改法案可能成为他最后一项重大国内立法,特别是考虑到他在参议院的多数优势在减弱的情况。这件事结束后,他的脑子就能更多地思考从朝鲜到伊朗等的外交问题。因此其他西方国家面临着一个迫切问题——如何去影响此人?

  

 

  After his unexpected election, ambassadors in Washington hastily invited his associates todinner. But soon after these meals, many of the associates vanished. (Remember Rudy Giuliani)

  在特朗普意外当选后,驻华盛顿的各国大使匆忙邀请他的副手们共赴晚宴。但在吃过饭后不久,其中很多副手消失了。(还记得鲁迪朱利安尼(Rudy Giuliani)吗?)

  Foreign officials quickly grasped that Trump’s White House is structured like a small familycompany: only relatives (excluding wives) are unsackable. Justin Trudeau, Canada’s primeminister, took Trump’s daughter Ivanka to a Canadaphile Broadway play, and Angela Merkelbrought her to Berlin for a panel. But the biggest prize for western diplomats is Jared Kushner,Ivanka’s husband, the so-called “shadow secretary of state”. A French official who wasgarrulous on all subjects suddenly fell silent when asked to assess Kushner. The subject wastoo sensitive.

  外国官员很快意识到,特朗普领导的白宫就像是小型家族企业:唯有亲属(妻子除外)是铁打不动的。加拿大总理贾斯廷特鲁多(Justin Trudeau)邀请特朗普的女儿伊万卡(Ivanka)去看了一部亲加拿大的百老汇戏剧。安格拉默克尔(Angela Merkel)带她去柏林参加一场对话会。但是西方外交官最想结交的是伊万卡的丈夫、人称“影子国务卿”的贾里德库什纳(Jared Kushner)。有一位法国官员讲起什么话题都滔滔不绝,但被问及如何评价库什纳这个人时,他突然陷入了沉默。这个话题太敏感了。

  Allies have also staked out Trump’s Floridian retreat, Mar-a-Lago. Canada’s special asset isformer premier Brian Mulroney, who knows Trump from the Florida vacation-home circuit, buteveryone can play this game. “Any foreign intel service that doesn’t have an agent as a memberor employee of Mar-a-Lago is guilty of rank incompetence,” says American neocon writerMax Boot.

  盟友们还密切关注着特朗普在佛罗里达州的居所海湖庄园(Mar-a-Lago)。加拿大的法宝是前总理布赖恩马尔罗尼(Brian Mulroney)——他在那里认识了特朗普——但每个人都能来这一套。美国新保守主义作家马克斯布特(Max Boot)表示,“如果哪家外国情报机构没有在海湖庄园安插特工,就是不称职。”

  Yet western allies still feel out of the Trumpian loop. Talking to the administration’s “grown-ups” — defence secretary Jim Mattis and national security adviser HR McMaster — only getsthem so far: Trump apparently overruled the grown-ups on Jerusalem, for instance. More thanin previous US administrations, reaching the president is essential. And the Europeans mustreach him without being able to put forward many of the generals, billionaires and autocratswhom Trump admires.

  但西方盟友仍然感觉没进入特朗普的圈子。和特朗普政府中的“成年人”——国防部长吉姆马蒂斯(Jim Mattis)和国家安全顾问赫伯特雷蒙德麦克马斯特(HR McMaster)——交谈没太大作用:例如,在耶路撒冷问题上,特朗普显然驳回了成年人的建议。相比往届美国政府,如今与总统接触尤为重要。而且,欧洲人必须在讲不出几个令他钦佩的将军、亿万富翁和独裁者的情况下与他接触。

  Perhaps Europe’s leading Trump-whisperer is Emmanuel Macron, the French president. The bestactor-politician since Ronald Reagan, Macron first demonstrated his toughness towardsTrump with the famous white-knuckle handshake. Then came France’s diplomatic coup:Trump’s visit to Paris for July’s Bastille Day parade. Macron hosted him without showing a hintof the intellectual condescension to which Trump is so sensitive. When the two men metagain in September, Trump spent the first 10 minutes reliving the parade, which he hopes toreplicate in Washington next July 4. “And I want horses!” he told his entourage.

  欧洲最能跟特朗普说上话的或许是法国总统埃马纽埃尔马克龙(Emmanuel Macron)。作为自罗纳德里根(Ronald Reagan)以来最好的演技派政客,马克龙首先以那次著名的握手(握到指关节发白),向特朗普展示了他的坚韧。接着是法国的外交妙招:特朗普访问巴黎参加了7月巴士底日(Bastille Day)阅兵。马克龙接待特朗普时丝毫没有流露出才智上的优越感,特朗普在这方面非常敏感。当俩人于9月再次会晤时,特朗普先花了10分钟重提那次阅兵——他希望明年7月4日也在华盛顿举行阅兵。“我要一些马!”他告诉随从人员。

  The French aren’t sure how much this helps them. Trump still dropped out of the Paris accords.At least, they say, Macron can make his case to Trump and be heard.

  法国人不确定这有多大帮助。特朗普仍然退出了巴黎协定。他们表示,至少马克龙能向特朗普解释自己的立场而且特朗普听进去了。

  Merkel and Theresa May wish they could. Uncharismatic women who don’t live in bling-ladenpalaces, they can’t meet Trump king to king, and they don’t play golf. Merkel also suffers, notesConstanze Stelzenmüller of the Brookings Institution, from Trump’s disapproval of “bad, verybad Germany” — a phrase he once used in Brussels when complaining to European leadersabout the German trade surplus.

  默克尔和特里萨梅(Theresa May)希望自己也能这样。这些不住在金碧辉煌的宫殿中、缺乏魅力的女性,不能与特朗普进行“王对王”的会面,也不会打高尔夫球。布鲁金斯学会(Brookings Institution)的康斯坦策施特尔岑米勒(Constanze Stelzenmüller)指出,特朗普不赞同“糟糕、非常糟糕的德国”——这是他在布鲁塞尔向欧洲领导人抱怨德国贸易顺差时所说的话——也让默克尔受挫。

  His refusal to shake Merkel’s hand in Washington was a clear statement from a man who learntthe symbolism of handshakes after entering politics. (Previously, he avoided shaking for fear ofgerms.) Merkel regularly phones Trump. But she comes across as condescending. ThorstenBenner, head of Berlin’s Global Public Policy Institute, says, “He sees her as an irritatingEuropean who’s always lecturing him.” At most she can use Trump as an argument to nudgeGermans towards more European co-operation. Jeremy Shapiro and Dina Pardijs, writing for theEuropean Council on Foreign Relations, call this Trump’s “Antichrist effect”.

  对于一个在步入政坛后(之前他因担心感染细菌而避免与人握手)懂得握手象征意义的人来说,特朗普在华盛顿拒绝与默克尔握手就是一个明显表现。默克尔经常与特朗普通电话,但她给人一种纡尊降贵的印象。柏林全球公共政策研究所(Global Public Policy Institute)的索斯藤本纳(Thorsten Benner)表示,“他把她看作是总给他说教的惹人生气的欧洲人。”她充其量能拿特朗普当例子,敦促德国人加强欧洲合作。为欧洲对外关系委员会(European Council on Foreign Relations)撰稿的杰里米夏皮罗(Jeremy Shapiro)和迪纳帕尔迪斯(DinaPardijs)称这是特朗普的“反基督效应”。

  Merkel and May are also constrained by their domestic audiences. Whereas French voterstend to have little emotional investment in US politics, most Germans and Brits want theirleaders to berate Trump. May has characteristically mishandled this. Days after hisinauguration, she visited Washington to hold his hand and ask for a trade deal. She offeredhim a state visit, which if it ever happens, will prompt a historic demonstration. Her effortswere both pointless and irresponsible. Trump probably won’t ever give the UK his advertised“very big & exciting” deal.

  默克尔和梅也受到国内民众制约。法国选民一般不会对美国政治投入多少感情,而大多数德国人和英国人都希望他们的领导人痛斥特朗普。梅是这方面处理不当的典型。在特朗普就职后几天,她出访华盛顿握着特朗普的手要求达成一项贸易协议。她邀请他对英国进行国事访问——如果成行将引发历史性的示威活动。她的努力既没意义又不负责。特朗普可能永远也不会跟英国签订他所说的“非常大且令人激动的”协议。

  Now, with Trump apparently planning to bomb North Korea in the last months before it can hitthe US, Europeans are mere spectators. Their best hope of influencing him might be buyingcommercials on Fox News’s morning shows. They can only hope 2018 will be as benign as2017.

  在如今特朗普似乎打算在朝鲜还没能够打击美国的最后几个月内抢先轰炸朝鲜的形势下,欧洲人只是旁观者而已。他们要想影响特朗普,最有希望的做法或许就是在福克斯新闻(Fox News)早间节目花钱做广告。他们只能希望2018年和2017年一样顺顺当当。

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